SYRIAN PEACE TALKS: KURDS DESERVE A SEAT AT THE TABLE

A flag of the autonomous Kurdistan region flies next to an Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighter as he takes position to monitor the area in Bashiqa, north-east of Mosul. Photograph: Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

Kurdish

President Masoud Barzani with Peshmerga commanders

I do not have too many close friends. I have lots of acquaintances, but I keep my inner circle really small. And if there is one thing I value most in friendship, it is loyalty. I consider myself a loyal friend. I would go out of my way for a friend; and I also never forget those who stand with me when the chips are down. They are the ones to whom I give the utmost priority. I have always been that way. And so, I guess in the same vein, I also expect that in the field of international relations, nations would stand by those who stand with them in their hour of need. This brings me to the issue at hand- the impending Syrian peace talks. Ever since the UN announced that the talks would begin in Geneva, Switzerland, there has been a lot of chatter about just who is invited to the table. The important power players e.g. USA, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia; would all be at the table. Within Syria, the Assad government is expected to be represented; along with mostly Saudi-backed opposition fighters. For obvious reasons, ISIS is not invited! But what struck me as odd, is the fact that despite their massive and important involvement in the war against ISIS, an invitation has not been extended to the Kurds.

The Kurds are a minority group found in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and even in Iran. Over the years, they have fought for their independence in a Kurdish homeland. They have also been victims of political segregation and even genocide. In 1988, Saddam Hussein used poison gas to wipe out approximately 150,000 Kurds, in what the Kurds now refer to as the “War of Annihilation”. In Turkey, the government has labeled the Kurdish PKK as a terrorist organization and a threat to its national stability. For this reason, they have carried out attacks against Kurdish YPG positions in Syria. Nevertheless, the Kurds have persevered.

As ISIS sprung up in 2014, the Iraqi army fled. Their abandoned weaponry and equipment were taken by the terrorists as they grew and advanced. As territory after territory fell to the ISIS onslaught in Iraq and Syria, the Americans were in desperate need of effective fighting units; especially as Barack Obama had declared that “there would be no American boots on the ground”. The Kurds thus, stepped in. Brave men and women volunteered themselves in the fight against ISIS. The Kurds have proven to be a highly disciplined group, and a formidable fighting force. They have been essential in relaying vital intelligence to US military commanders, in order to carry out effective airstrikes against ISIS targets. Even when their requests for weapons have been declined by the Americans, time and time again, the Kurds have fought on. As one Kurdish mother lamented the death of her 3 sons in battle, she proudly and defiantly declared that she had 2 more sons who were willing and able to sacrifice themselves in defense of their homeland, if need be. The female Kurdish Peshmerga (Peshmerga, meaning those who face death) are just as brave as the men folk. In fact, it is said that ISIS fighters dread been killed by a female Peshmerga. According to them, this would take away their chances of going to paradise! As the war has progressed, the Kurds have been able to regain most of their territory previously seized by ISIS. They were vital to the liberation of Sinjar, and are also thought to be highly essential to any planned future assault to retake Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. In fact, it is widely asserted that Iraq’s fighting force would be ineffective in Mosul, without Kurdish input. The Kurds have been a vital military ally for the Americans in Syria and Iraq, and many of them have lost their lives fighting. They have been responsible for the death of thousands of ISIS fighters, even with obsolete weaponry. It is therefore mind-boggling that the United States is willing to exclude them from the Geneva talks. It is also quite strange, that it is the Russians who are vehemently pushing for Kurdish inclusion at the talks. According to Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, the Kurds have been an effective fighting force in Syria. They also account for 15% of the Syrian population, and it would thus be “counterproductive”, if they are not present at Geneva. I agree.

On the other hand, while Russia wants the Kurds present at the talks, the Americans are not so keen; even though the Kurds have been a very important military ally in their anti-ISIS war efforts. This is because of regional considerations- particularly in deference to Turkey which sees the Kurdish fighters as terrorists. For a very long time since the outbreak of the Syrian War, the Turks refused to allow the US use its airbases as take-off points for coalition forces in anti-ISIS aerial bombardment; even though they are both NATO members. When they finally agreed sometime in 2015, one of the conditions was that there would be zero ISIS presence, and also zero Kurdish presence along the Turkish-Syrian border. Within Turkey, there are allegations of terrorist activities by the Kurdish PKK and last year, the Turkish government cracked down on PKK members, essentially ending the previously established truce. And Turkish disdain extends to the wider Kurdish population; especially the Peshmerga in Syria.

Some people are of the opinion that the Kurds do not necessarily have the same end-goals as the United States. That while the main goal of the Americans is the defeat of ISIS; that of the Kurds is the establishment of a homeland. But even if this is true, no one can deny the fact that in seeking the creation of a homeland, the Kurdish Peshmerga force has perhaps been the most effective ally the Americans have in Syria and Iraq! I therefore think that it is a slap in the face of every Kurdish soldier, that the USA would not push for Kurdish inclusion at the peace talks. It is also a spit on the grave of every Kurdish soldier killed in the battle against ISIS.

As I have gotten older and weathered fickle friendships, it has become more important to me, to take note of the friends who have proven to be willing to “ride or die” with me. US Secretary of State, Ash Carter, speaking to Fareed Zakaria during the recent World Economic Forum which held in Davos, stated that America would certainly win the war against ISIS; and that when they did, they would remember those who stood with them, and those who didn’t.  The Kurds have shown that they are trusted allies. They have proven their friendship, time and time again on the bloody battlefields of Syria and Iraq. They have sacrificed their lives to stand with the United States, and have essentially become America’s “boots on the ground”! Now, it is time for the United States to show just how valuable the Kurdish alliance is to them. Now is the time for the Americans to show just how appreciative they are of the Kurdish war efforts. The Kurds should not be excluded from the all-important peace talks to determine the future of Syria. Now is the time to give them a seat at the table- the negotiation table. The Kurds have stood- and are still standing- with America…will America stand with the Kurds?

AMAL CLOONEY: A STYLISH CELEBRATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISM

Amal Clooney welcomes former President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, at Heathrow Airport.

Photo Credit: Reuters

With a grin on her face and designer sunglasses nestled in her hair; the impeccably dressed, tall and slender figure, rushes to give a very big hug to the arriving visitor. Amal Clooney, international human rights lawyer and activist was at Heathrow Airport on 21^st January 2016, to welcome the former President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed into the UK after he was granted brief release from jail to undergo spine surgery.

At first glance, Amal’s appearance does not give away her reputation as a foremost lawyer. Infact it is easy for an unknowing spectator to mistake her for a supermodel, or a fashion magazine editor; but she is not. At 37 years of age, Mrs. Clooney has a reputation that precedes her- in a good way. Fluent in 3 languages and married to one of the most powerful men in Hollywood, she is a star in her own right. A lawyer at the Doughty Street Chambers, her clientele list includes countries and individuals…anyone she feels has had their valuable human rights trampled upon. She has represented Armenia against Turkey, and has also worked on the Cambodia-Thai border dispute that went before the ICC; she has represented Wikileaks founder, Julian Assange, in his fight against extradition, and also represented Mohamed Fahmy, one of the 3 Al-Jazeera journalists previously jailed in Egypt. Fierce in her defense of Fahmy, she labeled the trial a “show-trial” and issued various statements calling for his release. Fahmy was eventually pardoned by Egypt’s President, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Meeting with UK’s Prime Minister, David Cameron on Saturday, along with her client (Mohamed Nasheed), Amal urged the PM to use the Commonwealth Heads of Government’s meeting to call for the permanent release of Mr. Nasheed, the first democratically elected President of the Maldives, who was ousted in a military coup and sentenced to 13 years imprisonment on charges which have been termed as being “politically motivated” by much of the international community. On an interview on US television, she also mentioned that she has recently taken up the case of a female journalist in Azerbaijan, who was jailed for exposing regime corruption. Working on some of the toughest international human rights cases, Amal has met with everyone from members of the US Congress, to the UK Prime Minister, United Nations officials, Presidents, PM’s, and other high ranking government officials all around the world. A fierce defender of individual freedoms; such is the professional life of Amal Clooney.

Amal Clooney, right, met with Prime Minister David Cameron, centre, to raise the issue of the former president of the Maldives Mohammed Nasheed, left, who was overthrown in a military coup in 2012 and imprisoned for 13 years on terrorism charges after a dubious trial. Photo Credit: Daily Mail

YOUTUBE VIDEO: SAUDI ARABIA VERSUS IRAN

Click the link to watch my analysis of the ongoing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran; and how these Middle Eastern powerhouses can work together, to achieve peace in Syria and Yemen.
https://youtu.be/qAfwSktGfTY

CAUTION AND CELEBRATION: THE LIFTING OF IRANIAN SANCTIONS AND THE DECLINE OF AMERICA’S GEO-POLITICAL INFLUENCE.

A money changer holds US banknotes as he waits for customers in Tehran’s business district. Photograph: Reuters

The past couple of days have been quite eventful- and interesting- for Iranians. Saturday, 16^th January 2016, was a beautiful day in Iran; as crippling sanctions were finally lifted. After the IAEA Chief verified that Iran had complied with the terms of the 2015 Nuclear Deal to curb its nuclear programme, Iran was given the green light to re-enter the international community, economically. Iran can now expect a surge in its oil export, even as investors flock into Tehran. One Iranian economist even predicts a 7 to 8% economic growth increase in 2016/17. Ambitious indeed. A couple of days earlier, 10 US naval officers were captured by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, when their boats veered into Iranian waters “accidentally”. After being held for 15hours, they were released the next day in what has since been hailed as a sign of warmer relations between the United States and Iran- actually, some others see it as more of the product of a personal relationship between US Secretary of State, John Kerry; and Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif. The incident was not without propaganda display on the part of the Iranians though; as the 10 sailors were shown kneeling before their captors with their hands over their heads. Later, one of them was seen tendering an apology to the Iranians. A few days after this, 5 Americans who had previously been held in Iranian jails- unjustly- were also released. Amongst them was Pastor Saeed Abedini, and Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian. Rezaian had been held in Evin Prison for 18months on charges of espionage which have so far been unproven by the Iranians. Well, they were finally released…their families were beyond relieved to be re-united…again; this was hailed as a “triumph of diplomacy”. But taken into context, what does this all mean for the United States; and its position in the Middle East (and indeed the larger International Community)? Many have argued that the US is selling itself short, as Iran gets more out of this entire bargain. 4 of the 5 Americans were released as part of a prisoner-swap that saw the US also release 7 Iranians who had been indicted for transferring electronic components to Iran in violation of trade sanctions. As Donald Trump put it, “the USA got 4, while the Iranians got 7 and 150 billion (referring to the money expected to go into Iranian coffers with the lifting of Sanctions)”- paraphrase, mine.

People walk off a plane carrying three Iranian-Americans, who left Tehran under a prisoner swap, after it landed in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday. Denis Balibouse / Reuters

                                    

     

Jason Rezaian with his wife Yeganeh Salehi. Photograph: Vahid Salemi/AP

                                               

One of the perceived failures of the Obama administration is the fact that many believe that the US under Obama, has seen its position of prominence in the international community (especially the Mid-East), diminish. Ever since the “Syrian red line” was crossed without any consequence, it seems like the United States has taken a back-seat as occurrences unfold in the region; as Russia (and Iran) now calls the shots.  The Nuclear Deal which has been hailed by President Obama has not been without controversies. And even with its enactment, the question is “how long will Iran abide by the terms of the agreement, without cutting corners, taking advantage of loopholes, and being dubious?” At the moment, Iran is a country divided into 2 factions: the moderates (amongst whom include- supposedly- President Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Zarif) who seem to favor diplomacy; and the hard-liners (including many prominent leaders, the Revolutionary Guard Council; all led by the Ayatollah Khamenei) who favor a more defiant stance towards the United States….and they (the hard-liners) are the ones who essentially rule the country. Supporters of the Iranian Deal are quick to argue that the fact that so far, the Iranians have stuck to the terms of the agreement which led to the lifting of sanctions, this shows that the moderates are gaining more traction within Iran- for now at least. But if precedents are anything to go by, the life-span of this new movement may not be very long. I mean, if the hard-liners within Iran were not still so powerful, when the 10 US sailors were found in Iranian waters, they would (and should) have been given a warning, and then escorted into international waters; instead of being captured, detained, and paraded in such an undignified manner before the whole world! Also, in late December 2015, reports emerged of the Iranian military, firing rockets close to a US warship, in the Strait of Hormuz. If anyone somehow believes that the Ayatollah and the mullah’s- who are expecting the return of the “12^th Imam- the Mahdi”; and who believe that “the collapse of the US is imminent” – would give up on their quest for nuclear weaponry for Iran at some point, then I would venture to say that person is living in an alternate reality! And let us not overlook the fact that in spite of the nuclear deal, Iran still carries out ballistic missile testing, in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. The Ayatollah- and the IRGC- calls the shots within Iran. It is no secret that they do not favor peaceful relations with the US. Yes, Rouhani and Zarif may be the “heroes of diplomacy” at the moment…and yes, they may have agreed to stick to the terms of the deal- for now- for economic purposes, but how long is this “rosy situation” expected to last? Also, Rouhani will certainly be reminded that just like Ahmadinejad found, he also cannot go against the wishes of the Supreme Leader!

America’s allies in the region (especially Saudi Arabia and Israel) have noticed all these happenings, with great worry. The Saudi’s seem to have lost a lot of faith in the US partnership, and are now looking to forge their own (mostly Sunni) alliances in the region and beyond- look out for my video this week. As the divide between Riyadh and Tehran deepens, America does not seem to be able to use its influence (whatever is left of it) to broker some sort of peace. This does not bode well for the future of Syria and Yemen- again; look out for my video this week. Israel is also watching closely. And as relations deteriorated between Tel-Aviv and Washington, Moscow seemed to be occupying more prominence within Israel, as Israeli’s decided that Vladimir Putin was their “Person of the Year, 2015”. Recently, reports have also emerged of 3 Americans kidnapped in Iraq; allegedly by Iranian-backed Shiite militiamen. Americans now seem to be abducted with impunity, and without fear of consequence!

The prospect of the United States of America losing prominence in the region is very sad, scary, and indeed worrisome. It is not something that anyone would have predicted prior to 2011. For many decades, people all over the world have looked to the United States as a “beacon of light” in a world filled with darkness. The Western values of democracy, freedom and liberty, guided by strong American leadership, have found their way into far corners…the office of the President of the United States of America, has always been the Number One political office in the entire world. Allies have felt safe…enemies have always known that there would be consequences for rash actions, and no hiding place. It doesn’t seem so, anymore. As the released prisoners flew out of Iran, and as Iranians celebrated, a bystander could easily have thought to himself, that maybe the tide was indeed turning for the better. But like an intrigued spectator at a football match, I am holding my breath. And as I watched Barack Obama at his final State of the Union address declare again that “America is still number one. Period”; I couldn’t help but ask myself, if indeed he believed that to still be true!