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A money changer holds US
banknotes as he waits for customers in Tehran’s
business district. Photograph: Reuters
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The past couple of days have been quite eventful-
and interesting- for Iranians. Saturday, 16th January 2016, was a
beautiful day in Iran; as crippling sanctions were finally lifted. After the
IAEA Chief verified that Iran had complied with the terms of the 2015 Nuclear
Deal to curb its nuclear programme, Iran was given the green light to re-enter
the international community, economically. Iran can now expect a surge in its
oil export, even as investors flock into Tehran. One Iranian economist even
predicts a 7 to 8% economic growth increase in 2016/17. Ambitious indeed. A
couple of days earlier, 10 US naval officers were captured by the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard, when their boats veered into Iranian waters
“accidentally”. After being held for 15hours, they were released the next day
in what has since been hailed as a sign of warmer relations between the United
States and Iran- actually, some others see it as more of the product of a
personal relationship between US Secretary of State, John Kerry; and Iranian
Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif. The incident was not without propaganda display
on the part of the Iranians though; as the 10 sailors were shown kneeling
before their captors with their hands over their heads. Later, one of them was
seen tendering an apology to the Iranians. A few days after this, 5 Americans
who had previously been held in Iranian jails- unjustly- were also released.
Amongst them was Pastor Saeed Abedini, and Washington Post journalist Jason
Rezaian. Rezaian had been held in Evin Prison for 18months on charges of
espionage which have so far been unproven by the Iranians. Well, they were
finally released…their families were beyond relieved to be re-united…again;
this was hailed as a “triumph of diplomacy”. But taken into context, what does
this all mean for the United States; and its position in the Middle East (and
indeed the larger International Community)? Many have argued that the US is
selling itself short, as Iran gets more out of this entire bargain. 4 of the 5
Americans were released as part of a prisoner-swap that saw the US also release
7 Iranians who had been indicted for transferring electronic components to Iran
in violation of trade sanctions. As Donald Trump put it, “the USA got 4, while
the Iranians got 7 and 150 billion (referring to the money expected to go into
Iranian coffers with the lifting of Sanctions)”- paraphrase, mine.
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People walk off a plane
carrying three Iranian-Americans, who left Tehran under a prisoner swap, after
it landed in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday. Denis Balibouse / Reuters
Jason Rezaian with his wife
Yeganeh Salehi. Photograph: Vahid Salemi/AP
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One of the perceived failures of the Obama
administration is the fact that many believe that the US under Obama, has seen
its position of prominence in the international community (especially the
Mid-East), diminish. Ever since the “Syrian red line” was crossed without any
consequence, it seems like the United States has taken a back-seat as occurrences
unfold in the region; as Russia (and Iran) now calls the shots. The Nuclear Deal which has been hailed by
President Obama has not been without controversies. And even with its
enactment, the question is “how long will Iran abide by the terms of the
agreement, without cutting corners, taking advantage of loopholes, and being
dubious?” At the moment, Iran is a country divided into 2 factions: the moderates
(amongst whom include- supposedly- President Rouhani, and Foreign Minister
Zarif) who seem to favor diplomacy; and the hard-liners (including many
prominent leaders, the Revolutionary Guard Council; all led by the Ayatollah
Khamenei) who favor a more defiant stance towards the United States….and they
(the hard-liners) are the ones who essentially rule the country. Supporters of
the Iranian Deal are quick to argue that the fact that so far, the Iranians
have stuck to the terms of the agreement which led to the lifting of sanctions,
this shows that the moderates are gaining more traction within Iran- for now at
least. But if precedents are anything to go by, the life-span of this new
movement may not be very long. I mean, if the hard-liners within Iran were not
still so powerful, when the 10 US sailors were found in Iranian waters, they
would (and should) have been given a warning, and then escorted into
international waters; instead of being captured, detained, and paraded in such
an undignified manner before the whole world! Also, in late December 2015,
reports emerged of the Iranian military, firing rockets close to a US warship,
in the Strait of Hormuz. If anyone somehow believes that the Ayatollah and the
mullah’s- who are expecting the return of the “12th Imam- the Mahdi”;
and who believe that “the collapse of the US is imminent” – would give up on
their quest for nuclear weaponry for Iran at some point, then I would venture
to say that person is living in an alternate reality! And let us not overlook
the fact that in spite of the nuclear deal, Iran still carries out ballistic
missile testing, in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. The Ayatollah-
and the IRGC- calls the shots within Iran. It is no secret that they do not
favor peaceful relations with the US. Yes, Rouhani and Zarif may be the “heroes
of diplomacy” at the moment…and yes, they may have agreed to stick to the terms
of the deal- for now- for economic purposes, but how long is this “rosy
situation” expected to last? Also, Rouhani will certainly be reminded that just
like Ahmadinejad found, he also cannot go against the wishes of the Supreme
Leader!
America’s allies in the region (especially Saudi
Arabia and Israel) have noticed all these happenings, with great worry. The
Saudi’s seem to have lost a lot of faith in the US partnership, and are now
looking to forge their own (mostly Sunni) alliances in the region and beyond-
look out for my video this week. As the divide between Riyadh and Tehran
deepens, America does not seem to be able to use its influence (whatever is
left of it) to broker some sort of peace. This does not bode well for the
future of Syria and Yemen- again; look out for my video this week. Israel is
also watching closely. And as relations deteriorated between Tel-Aviv and
Washington, Moscow seemed to be occupying more prominence within Israel, as
Israeli’s decided that Vladimir Putin was their “Person of the Year, 2015”.
Recently, reports have also emerged of 3 Americans kidnapped in Iraq; allegedly
by Iranian-backed Shiite militiamen. Americans now seem to be abducted with
impunity, and without fear of consequence!
The prospect of the United States of America losing
prominence in the region is very sad, scary, and indeed worrisome. It is not
something that anyone would have predicted prior to 2011. For many decades,
people all over the world have looked to the United States as a “beacon of
light” in a world filled with darkness. The Western values of democracy,
freedom and liberty, guided by strong American leadership, have found their way
into far corners…the office of the President of the United States of America,
has always been the Number One political office in the entire world. Allies
have felt safe…enemies have always known that there would be consequences for rash
actions, and no hiding place. It doesn’t seem so, anymore. As the released
prisoners flew out of Iran, and as Iranians celebrated, a bystander could
easily have thought to himself, that maybe the tide was indeed turning for the
better. But like an intrigued spectator at a football match, I am holding my
breath. And as I watched Barack Obama at his final State of the Union address
declare again that “America is still number one. Period”; I couldn’t help but
ask myself, if indeed he believed that to still be true!
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